Comment from Stuart Masson, Editorial Director of The Car Expert on UK new car registrations from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) 2025 half-year results.
“The shape of the UK’s new car market is being redrawn in real time when you look at today’s data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). As Q2 draws a close, half-year SMMT results show Chinese brands are accelerating, European stalwarts are sliding, and electrified cars are edging ever closer to a historic tipping point. But what does this mean for the industry, and the end consumers?
“The biggest story of the year so far is the rise of the Chinese brands. BYD is up about 570 percent year-on-year, OMODA and JAECOO have gone from zero to meaningful share within months, and combined the three matched major brands like Audi in volume. They’re offering well-specced EV and hybrids at competitive prices, and buyers are responding. Other Chinese newcomers, like Leapmotor and Skywell, have had slower starts, but the momentum is clearly building, especially in light of LEVC, Lotus, Polestar and Volvo owner, Geely, confirmed to enter the UK car market on their own later this year.
“Meanwhile, several familiar names are struggling. At the halfway point of 2025, Citroën is down 41 percent, Audi down 18, and SEAT down 42. Even Nissan, Fiat, and Honda have seen double-digit declines, which is worrying when the new car market is up four per cent. The fleet sector, which helped carry the recovery post-COVID, is starting to flatten out, suggesting that period of bounce-back may be over.
“EVs are now so close to overtaking petrol and diesel new car registrations. In some months before the year’s end, more than half of all new cars registered are likely to be electric or hybrid. EV registrations are growing much faster than the market overall, but there’s nuance here. Self-registrations by manufacturers and dealers are likely boosting the figures though, so be wary that this may not be the true level of buyer demand.
“Officially, the ZEV mandate requires 28 percent of new cars sold in 2025 to be fully electric. In reality, with credits from plug-in hybrids and other low-emission models, the target is closer to 23 percent. As of the end of June 2025, EVs made up just under 25 percent of registrations – around three percentage points short. That’s roughly where we were this time last year, and many expect a wave of end-of-year deals to help close the gap.
“Tesla has bounced back in June after a poor spring. Some are pointing to Elon Musk’s political exit as a factor, but any registration boost would have been in motion long before that news. More likely, it’s just Tesla being Tesla – volatile as ever, with a low base last June exaggerating this year’s numbers.
“Ford is finally finding its feet, up slightly over 2024 – though that’s a low bar for them in reality. The good news is that it now has four EVs on sale, up from just one a year ago. That broader range is expected to improve performance through the second half. Combine that with EV demand and we may see the blue oval back to historical performance records.
“Brand performance has been sharply polarised. Among the winners: Alfa Romeo is up 50 percent, Jeep 76 percent, Polestar 204 percent (thanks to a three-model line-up), and Peugeot, Mazda, Cupra, Genesis, Renault, Skoda and Volvo all posting double-digit growth. Volkswagen remains the UK’s best-selling brand, up 13 percent year-on-year.
“Among those having a poor 2025 so far: Abarth is down 55 percent, Fiat 24, Suzuki 30, and smart is down 27 per cent despite its recent new launches. While several are hoping for new model launches or better stock in the second half to turn things around, with Chinese brands rising and the electric shift accelerating, the pressure is on.
“The market is evolving and quickly. Buyers want value, tech and availability, and they’re willing to look beyond the traditional badges to get it. The second half of 2025 will be decisive.
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